Interesting bit buried in the middle of the article:

For the last six years, Mexico bragged about its oft-questioned “hugs, not bullets” strategy, in which its leaders avoided confrontations with drug cartels that were gradually taking control of large parts of the country. The thinking was that social programs, not shootouts, would gradually drain the pool of cartel gunmen.

Now, a month into the term of new President Claudia Sheinbaum, a string of bloody confrontations suggests the government is quietly abandoning the “no bullets” part of that strategy and is much more willing to use the full force of the military and the militarized National Guard.

Again, I’m not “falling for propaganda,” unless you have a good explanation for how the Dutch police, the mayor of Amsterdam, and the king of the Netherlands are Israeli agents or somehow beholden to Israel to become vehicles for their propaganda. But we can leave it here. I think we’re all feeling pretty fucked up after the election. Take care of yourself :)

First, that was an awesome reply. You’re the best.

I agree with you. People often say offensive things when they’re in heated (verbal) conflict and we frequently make more of it than what it is. We react like, in those moments, people expose their true feelings when what they’re doing is saying ‘what is the most hurtful thing I could say to you.’ I don’t think that someone saying something racist in conflict like that makes something a racially motivated attack.

But there are two categories of things that happened here. One was the thing you described (and that we agree on), the other was something premeditated and coordinated. And there is a difference between saying “Jew hunt” and planning a Jew hunt. You don’t plan and execute ambushes in the heat of the moment. This planning occurred before most (maybe all) of the things people are saying the attacks were a response to.

When this British man was attacked, they didn’t demand to know whether he was Israeli or even supported Israel. They demanded to know if he was a Jew. No matter how people felt about, say, Saudi Arabia, if someone was approaching people in the street and demanding to know whether they’re Arab (or Muslim) before attacking them, I wouldn’t hesitate to call it racist. Whatever’s happening in the world, someone organizing to “hunt Arabs” in my city can fuck right off.

Honestly, if you trade out “Jews” with any other group, can you imagine people making excuses* for it? Is there a context in which it’s okay to put out a call to hunt Muslims? Persians? Arabs? Black folks? Women? Any group within the LGBTQ+ community?

*(And, just to be clear, I think you’re explaining that it appears worse/different than what it actually is, not making excuses.)

And you think that justifies organizing groups of people to hunt Jews in Amsterdam? Should they round up all the Jews in Connecticut just to be safe?

Just a dodge, really, but I get it. It ain’t easy defending organized Jew hunts.

To stop dancing around it, if someone called you up and said, “hey, let’s get together tonight and hunt some Jews!”, would you think that’s an okay thing to do or a fucked up thing to do?

While there were clashes between pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli groups (and other incidents), the Dutch authorities – who know more about this than any of us – have been unequivocal: the “hunt” was both racist and coordinated. If, say, Dutch neo-Nazis wanted to use anti-Israeli sentiment as a cover for racist violence, how do you think this would look different? Do you think it’s okay for Dutch neo-Nazis to do that?

And, if their investigation discovers neo-Nazis or other racist, far-right groups (who are very active in the Netherlands) doing just that, will you own supporting and defending their activity?

The claims are from Dutch authorities, not a random “someone,” and not solely from Israeli authorities. From the Guardian’s coverage:

The mayor of Amsterdam, Femke Halsema, described an “outburst” of antisemitism with “hit and run” attacks on the visiting supporters.

“Men on scooters crisscrossed the city looking for Israeli football fans. It was a hit and run. I can easily understand that this brings back memories of pogroms,” Halsema said. “Our city has been deeply damaged. Jewish culture has been deeply threatened. This is an outburst of antisemitism that I hope to never see again.”

. . .

Theodoor van Boven, who owns the Condomerie, near Dam Square on the Warmoesstraat, said he saw gangs apparently hunting and chasing opposing fans. “What we saw here in the street in the evening and at night were groups of often Dutch groups who were out hunting, who were looking for Maccabi fans. They were on foot in groups, on scooters, riding round looking, and telephoning each other – it [seemed to be] organised.”

And, yes, “Jew hunts” are racist even if particular Jews who end up being hunted are themselves racist assholes.

Israeli fans were assaulted after a soccer game in Amsterdam by hordes of young people apparently riled up by calls on social media to target Jewish people, Dutch authorities said Friday.

. . .

On the social media platform Telegram, “there is talk of people going on a Jew hunt,” Halsema said. “That is so shocking and so despicable that I still cannot fathom it.”

I’m not sure “Jew hunts” are criticism of Israel. If that isn’t some Nazi shit, what is?

I do think they’ve probably taken a ton of cartel money.

I think this is just regular politics though. The Canadian government is saying the same thing. It’d be weird if they were like, “everybody panic!”, right? If anything, it shows that everyone is really worried about it. And it’s also probably a bad idea to pick a fight before that dickhead is even in office.

Ukrainian losses in the east are well documented. From another article today in the Kyiv Independent:

Russia has captured 1,146 square kilometers (442 square miles) in Ukraine since Aug. 6, about a quarter more than in the first seven months of the year, the media outlet said. The Russian military also advanced by 200 square kilometers (77 square miles) over the past week, Bloomberg reported.

As Russia makes gains on the battlefield, Ukrainian officials are growing more despondent about the future course of the war, according to one official close to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office who spoke to Bloomberg.

~~

31,000 Ukrainian KIA, with Russia’s estimated KIA ranging from 100k to 200k.

There aren’t official public Ukrainian stats on this. There are various estimates. The US estimates about 70K. An anonymous Ukrainian official told the WSJ it was 80K last month. I can’t tell where their 57K comes from, but it’s a bit lower than most estimates. It’s definitely not an outlandish number though.

I’m assuming your 31K is from a public statement from Zelensky in February. Here’s another Kyiv Independent article that examines that public statement about casualties – and the difficulty of getting accurate information. Even in March they said that estimate was “significantly lower than some recent estimates published by sources outside the government in the absence of official data.” And that was more than 8 months ago.

I just meant that there are around 500 confirmed cases. There are probably many that have yet to be confirmed and others where it’ll never be possible to confirm. So ~500 is the floor not the ceiling.

I read that more as “at least 500.”

He has a real Michael McKean vibe

I’m not sure that the headline is saying that it’s not normal to be freaked out – just that people are freaked out.

Yep!

Both sides taking the off-ramp, returning to the shadow war, and not attacking each other directly.

999 problems and federation is probably one

Weird. Why are the powers that be hiding 3 posts from you???

Whoa, this was my 1000th post. Huzzah! (or Sorry!)

At least for now, it looks like Iran is downplaying the attacks, which is a good sign for de-escalation.

Unprecedented? Maybe? But unexpected? You’d have to have been deluded to think Iran was just going to take it.

You’ve sort of set that up as either that reaction or no reaction. Everyone expected a reaction. Iran and Israel have been at this a long time. Israel expected a reaction similar to their past actions. And they’ve always avoided direct confrontation. I don’t think I saw anyone predicting that response from Iran before it happened.

No it definitely was. The first attack from Iran from a few months back was done pretty politely.

I’m just skeptical of that. I think their second attack was similar to the first but with less lead time and better weaponry – an amped up version of their initial message which was basically, “don’t fuck with us.”

The main reason I’m skeptical is that I don’t think Iran wants war right now. They had even initially said that Hezbollah was going to responsible for the response. That led to internal debate that was won by more hard line voices. But this really couldn’t be a worse time for war for Iran. They’re probably weaker right now than they’ve ever been. Their economy is terrible and the public hates the government. Their unpopularity led to civil unrest that they violently suppressed, which restored order but increased public dislike of the government. The domestic picture is not rosy right now.

On top of that, their game plan in conflict is to be backed up by their proxies, primarily Hezbollah. That plan is in tatters now. Hamas has probably lost about 75% of their fighters. They’re in no position to be a major threat at the moment. Hezbollah has been weakened and is relatively disorganized compared to a few months ago. They had near absolute trust in Nasrallah and they probably can’t be certain that whoever replaces him will share his level of commitment. The Houthis are further away and are the least reliable of the three. Finally, Iran doesn’t have to lose to lose. Any diminishment of Iran is a relative strengthening of Saudi Arabia that shifts the balance of power in the region.

All of that taken together leads me to think their intention was to put an exclamation mark on their previous message and not dare Israel to go to war with them.