Copernicus Climate Change Service says results a ‘large and continuing shift’ in the climate
The world has baked for 12 consecutive months in temperatures 1.5C (2.7F) greater than their average before the fossil fuel era, new data shows.
Temperatures between July 2023 and June 2024 were the highest on record, scientists found, creating a year-long stretch in which the Earth was 1.64C hotter than in preindustrial times.
The findings do not mean world leaders have already failed to honour their promises to stop the planet heating 1.5C by the end of the century – a target that is measured in decadal averages rather than single years – but that scorching heat will have exposed more people to violent weather. A sustained rise in temperatures above this level also increases the risk of uncertain but catastrophic tipping points.
Probably something like the Bronze Era collapse, but with a lot more people and likely a rebound that leads to a slower industrial revolution involving renewable materials. I think the actual collapse will take a lot longer than people seem to think, on the order of the next 75 to 100 years. I think for some, it could happen rather quickly over the next 10-20 years, but for most, it’ll be a slow and meandering quality of life decline over several generations that is already under way. Recovery will take much longer on the order of 100 to 250 years. I am basing this guesstimate on absolutely zero scientific information whatsoever.
I really hope we can shift to a circular economy over the next 65 years as this happens and we can build what we need from the massive extractions from the earth made by our ancestors.