a surrender condition that lets Russia retain all the land they’ve taken
A while ago there was a prediction about the true intentions of the russia negotiating: they want to stop Ukraine from succeeding as a state, since that would be a bad omen for a neighbouring kleptocracy.
If this prediction comes true the outcome you describe is actually very unlikely, because the russia would rather continue fighting just to keep the region in shambles.
Possibly although I’ve heard a few different theories about what Russia really wants. One theory is that their goal was to get their hands on Ukraine’s lithium mines since the value of gas and oil is declining while lithium is rising.
In either case what Russia wanted and what they’re capable of achieving right now are two different things. It seems highly unlikely that Russia is capable of a complete military victory and occupation of Ukraine at this point, at least not without pulling their armed forces off most of their border, something Putin very much does not want to do. This entire thing has turned into a giant quagmire for Russia as originally they expected this to play out as a fast blitz to seize the capital and instead they got dragged into a prolonged siege that has severely weakened their military not to mention exposed exactly how shabby and 3rd rate it is.
Considering the rocky position Putin is in now no matter his original intent he may consider it worth while to take the small gains he has made and quit while he’s ahead. If he believes he can prevent Ukraine from joining NATO then he can always just re-invade in the future after he’s reinforced his troops and replenished his weapons stockpiles.
A while ago there was a prediction about the true intentions of the russia negotiating: they want to stop Ukraine from succeeding as a state, since that would be a bad omen for a neighbouring kleptocracy.
If this prediction comes true the outcome you describe is actually very unlikely, because the russia would rather continue fighting just to keep the region in shambles.
Possibly although I’ve heard a few different theories about what Russia really wants. One theory is that their goal was to get their hands on Ukraine’s lithium mines since the value of gas and oil is declining while lithium is rising.
In either case what Russia wanted and what they’re capable of achieving right now are two different things. It seems highly unlikely that Russia is capable of a complete military victory and occupation of Ukraine at this point, at least not without pulling their armed forces off most of their border, something Putin very much does not want to do. This entire thing has turned into a giant quagmire for Russia as originally they expected this to play out as a fast blitz to seize the capital and instead they got dragged into a prolonged siege that has severely weakened their military not to mention exposed exactly how shabby and 3rd rate it is.
Considering the rocky position Putin is in now no matter his original intent he may consider it worth while to take the small gains he has made and quit while he’s ahead. If he believes he can prevent Ukraine from joining NATO then he can always just re-invade in the future after he’s reinforced his troops and replenished his weapons stockpiles.